[Olpc-open] [Edu-sig] OLPC G1G1 sales start today

[François Schnell]

On Nov 15, 2007 4:37 PM, John Kintree <jkintree at swbell.net> wrote:
> François Schnell <francois.schnell at gmail.com> wrote:
> The best way to avoid a danger is to know its existence.
> So, only kamikaze people don't re-evaluate the situation when rushing
> towards the wall.
> How do you know the OLPC project is "rushing towards the wall?"

Hi John,

I've already made my point and gave arguments above.
I don't plan to flood the list much longer with my critics.
Despite what it may look like I'm a huge OLPC supporter not a detractor.

I'm seeking for answer(s), even short, from someone at OLPC.
Isn't it the good place?

As I already explained I'm mainly insisting on the re-evaluation of
the situation with regard to the "changed and now rapidly evolving
global landscape."

In France for example, ASUS presented the Eee to the press this Wednesday.
It is now appearing everywhere in the traditional media, at prime time
on national TV and in magazines.
Reviews are good and yes, everybody will be able to buy them.

ASUS seems surprised by the success of the Eee and is now
presenting it (at least in Paris) as a ... "computer for children"...
http://www.blogeee.net/2007/11/14/le-eee-pc-presente-officiellement-par-asus/

I think we shouldn't underestimate ASUSTek which clearly sees that the
potential is huge.
I believe they are now re-evaluating the situation and the "computer
for children" they will sell won't be XO.

>Do you know
> what the response to the G1G1 initiative has been so far?
>

Of course not, because OLPC decided to keep this number secret,
unlike what Open Source or Open Contents projects would do.

>  The project has altered course already.  Selling the XO laptops in North
> America as soon as mass production began was not part of the original plan.
> Eliminating all restrictions on sales of the XO laptops may be something
> that the project is considering.  How do you know it is not?
>

I sincerely hope you're right and unless you haven't notice I'm
pushing for that,
even if I'm doing it in a little "irritating" fashion (previous
conventional communication didn't seem to work from what I've
seen...).

>  We could play with some numbers.

Ok :)

> Suppose the number of XO laptops ordered
> through the G1G1 initiative is 10,000 (x2)  or less.  That would indicate
> hitting the wall.  Time to change course.
>
>  Suppose the number of XO laptops ordered through the G1G1 initiative is
> near 100,000 (x2).  Would that be hitting the wall?   That level of interest
> by relatively wealthy Americans might help convince some of the national
> departments of education that ordering XO laptops is not a sign of settling
> for something inferior.
>
>  Suppose the number of XO laptops ordered through the G1G1 initiative is
> near 1,000,000 (x2).  That might indicate leaping over the wall.
>

So to summarize:

case 1 : x ~ 10 000          # failure
case 2 : x ~  100 000       # failure/success
case 3 : x ~  1 000 000    # success

Lets increase this operation to the potential buyers in the world (as
opposed to just the
US and Canada) and expand the time of the operation (as opposed to 2
weeks).

so x = x*openSpaceTimeFactor

Difficult to estimate openSpaceTimeFactor but I believe it's way above 100.
Results?
The 3 cases scenarios are all winners in the millions!  :)

So I believe OLPC should put the XO in a situation where it just can't lose
("in regard to the changed and now rapidly evolving global landscape.")

>  I don't know.  I appreciate your passion, and resonate with it to a large
> degree.  It just seems to me that we need to see what happens with the G1G1
> initiative before concluding that this is a kamikaze mission.

Well don't worry too much about the kamikaze keyword.

Let say it was at test to see if the OLPCMasterListParser would catch
this one and wake-up someone in the USS OLPC Starship :)

Looks like no one from OLPC is reading this list?

PS:
Thanks very much for all the private message I've received.
It's really nice to see I'm not insane in my questions.

francois


>  Regards,
>  John Kintree
>
>