[Olpc-open] [OLPC-SF] Microsoft Is Joining Low-Cost Laptop Project - New York Times

[Edward Cherlin]

On Tue, May 20, 2008 at 12:11 PM, Christian Einfeldt <einfeldt at gmail.com> wrote:
>  hi,
>
>> Of course, I still haven't
>> seen any videos of Sugar running on top of XP, and I seriously doubt if
>> they (MSFT) have any intentions of doing so.
>
> Microsoft also has no intention of nurturing OLPC.  It is a non-starter for
> them.  The margins are too low.  They just are trying to kill the whole
> program.  Extend.  Embrace.  Extinguish.
>
> I think that the whole world is war weary, and I know that I certainly don't
> like war metaphors, but there is a fierce competition going on between
> Microsoft and the FOSS community, and it is a zero sum game.

This turns out not to be the case. Both Microsoft and the FOSS
community are expanding the market, and creating opportunities for
each other. Also, for Microsoft it's all about money, while for FOSS
it's about something more valuable. Microsoft makes billions of
dollars, and in strictly financial terms can be said to have created
even more billions of dollars of value for customers. FOSS lives on
donated time and rather little money, but creates trillions of dollars
of value. Or, if you don't want to set a value on lives saved,
incalculable value. Better than MS, in either case.

> And it's all
> about one thing: the installbase.

And the criminal use of a monopoly that they originally obtained
legally, through IBM's failure to write the contract for PC DOS to
give them an exclusive on it.

> The greater the Microsoft installbase,
> the more money they will have to create mischief, and the greater the
> network effects among buyers and sellers.

The network effect of FOSS is already stronger than the Windows
network effect, for those who are ready to consider Linux, BSD, and
the rest at all. The Windows network effect has to do with file
sharing. The FOSS network effect has to do with sharing files, and
also code and values. Every year this effect gets stronger because the
community can improve the software in any way they like, and they do
like. Every year there is a new round of FUD about the latest feature
or function that Microsoft claims will never be available in Linux,
and every year the community reads the story in the industry papers
(lately the tech blogs) and finds out what someone needs to work on
next. And they do. And the next year Microsoft has to apply the same
FUD to whatever new complaint they can come up with.

If you would like to understand this network effect better, don't read
business and tech publications. Read The Evolution of Cooperation, by
Norman Axelrod.

> What is our number one problem in
> spreading FOSS?  My answer:  the chicken and egg problem.  Not enough
> vendors building machines and software for GNU Linux because not enough
> buyers.  Why are there not enough buyers?  Because all the software they
> want is made for Microsoft, not Linux, and so all of their friends,
> colleagues, and family use Microsoft products.

You should look at the Liliputing article linked from the Competition
page on the Wiki. On the two dozen ultra-low-cost laptops listed in
their comparison article there are slightly more Linux offerings than
Windows, an unheard-of phenomenon. It's a brand new market, and OLPC
has changed the rules. I wrote about the shifting of dominant market
leaders at major breaks in computer architecture in 1981 in one of the
computer business papers. The principles haven't changed.

The Innovator's Dilemma is a more recent take on the fact that market
leaders in one generation of a technology rarely survive into the
next.

> We need to do more to support fledgling businesses like Zareason that sell
> FOSS solutions.  We need to do more to get computers into the hands of
> students and other end users.

We need to lighten up and have faith in the program. ^_^

> To that end, we still have about 50 machines at the school that could be
> donated to two different low income projects that have requested these
> boxes, but not enough hands to get it done.  If we could make a commitment
> to get together every Saturday for the next three of four Saturdays (after
> this Saturday, for which I have another FOSS event), we could do it.

The local Linux User Groups have regular Installfests. I coordinate
Installfests for Silicon Valley LUG, usually at Evergreen Valley
College. On occasion Andrew Fife (copied on this e-mail) organizes
really big installfests at multiple sites around the Bay Area. We put
Ubuntu Linux on more than 300 computers the last time. He can tell you
how to get your computers done up if you can get a few volunteers
together at the school.

> Installbase, installbase, installbase.

Share of mind, share of mind, share of mind. The poor don't get a
chance to speak, and won't until they get their computers, but they
already have heard about the choice between Linux and Windows.
Regardless of what the education Ministries think, the poor know which
side of their bread has no butter on it.

> --
> Christian Einfeldt,
> Producer, The Digital Tipping Point

How's that coming along, Christian? Would you like another interview
on the subjects addressed above?

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> OLPC-SF at lists.laptop.org
> http://lists.laptop.org/listinfo/olpc-sf

-- 
Edward Cherlin
End Poverty at a Profit by teaching children business
http://www.EarthTreasury.org/
"The best way to predict the future is to invent it."--Alan Kay